The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

The Basic Laws of Human Stupidity

The basic laws of human stupidity:

1. Always and inevitably everyone underestimates the number of stupid individuals in circulation.

2. The probability that a certain person be stupid is independent of any other characteristic of that person.

3. A stupid person is a person who causes losses to another person or to a group of persons while himself deriving no gain and even possibly incurring losses.

4. Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid individuals. In particular non-stupid people constantly forget that at all times and places and under any circumstances to deal and/or associate with stupid people always turns out to be a costly mistake.

5. A stupid person is the most dangerous type of person.

The corollary of the Law is that:

A stupid person is more dangerous than a bandit.

Read the full thesis by clicking on the link above.

- Sanjay Kalra

Disruptive technology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Disruptive technology - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia: "A disruptive technology is a new technological innovation, product, or service that eventually overturns the existing dominant technology in the market, despite the fact that the disruptive technology is both radically different than the leading technology and that it often initially performs worse than the leading technology according to existing measures of performance. A disruptive technology comes to dominate an existing market by either filling a role in a new market that the older technology could not fill (as more expensive, lower capacity but smaller-sized hard disks did for newly developed notebook computers in the 1980s) or by successively moving up-market through performance improvements until finally displacing the market incumbents (as digital photography has come to replace film photography)."

Sanjay Kalra

Howard Stinger, CEO, Sony

Here's a discussion of Sony's recent woes. Sounds pretty interesting.

Personally, I think Sony should lay off all its people and shut down the company - that will cure all their problems. And it will be good for their people too - they will all be picked up by Samsung, LG and other Chinese and Taiwanese manufacturers.

I stil can't fathom as to how a company that literally owned the personal music player space could lose out to an industry outsider like Apple.

As for the legendary Sony quality, these days Samsung quality is a whole lot better than Sony.

Sanjay Kalra

Japan Today - Quote Of The Day - We have made promises before but we failed to execute them. We must fight like the Sony warriors that we are. - Japan's Leading International News Network: "We have made promises before but we failed to execute them. We must fight like the Sony warriors that we are.
Sony CEO Howard Stringer, announcing a major restructuring program."

Honda rolls out new hybrid Civic

I like Honda's strategy for Hybrids better than Toyota. Civic looks good - like the regular civic - but gives you great mileage and is eco-friendly like a Hybrid.

If you wanna go arond making an environment-friendly statement, but a Toyota Prius. But if you are the slient, non-exhibitionist type, just do your "Civic" duty :-)
Japan Today - News - Honda rolls out new hybrid Civic - Japan's Leading International News Network: "hybrid system"

DEMOfall 05

DEMOfall conference is being held in Huntington Beach this week from Sept. 19-21. This is where a lot of innovative products have first seen the light of day over last several years. What do you think will be the big winners this year. Personally, I would look out for the following:

1. ATG www.atg.com

2. EverDesk www.everdesk.com

3. H3.com www.h3.com

4. Peerflix www.peerflix.com

More to come...

A lot of blogging going on at the Demofall show this year as you would imagine. Some noteworthy blogs are:

http://blogs.demo.com/

http://shaw.blogs.demo.com/

http://shipley.blogs.demo.com/

http://www.networkworld.com/community/?q=taxonomy/term/213

DEMOfall

Sanjay Kalra

Dell Axim X51v - Windows Mobile PDA Reviews by Mobile Tech Review

Here's a good review of the latest in the Dell Axim lineup of PDAs. While this PDA is as good as it gets these days - VGA screen, wi-fi, size factor, multimedia capabilities, etc. I still don't understand why Dell isn't combining it with cell phone capabilities.

To me it looks like the standalone PDA is a useless device - I am not going to stuff a PDA in one pocket and a cellphone in another. Palm Treo has demonstrated beyond doubt that these two things go together. But somehow the industry doesn't seem to be getting it.

On one hand you have Palm Treo - which could definitely benefit from wi-fi and windows mobile OS (it seems that is what they are planning for their next product - Treo 670). On the other hand you have smartphones based on PDA's from HP etc. which are not the right form factor and are way too expensive for the cell phone market. I bought a Treo 600 for just $125 with a one year service plan earlier this year. I might be willing to pay upto $200 for a good PDA phone with wi-fi but not much more.

Sanjay Kalra
Dell Axim X51v - Windows Mobile PDA Reviews by Mobile Tech Review

Next generation workflow - Vendor Voice - Network Magazine India

An excellent perspective on how Business Process Management practices can make organizations speedy and efficient. The author is Diwakar Nigam, founder Chairman of Newgen Software Technologies - a leading provider of BPM and Content Management solutions worldwide with 40% market share in its home base of India.

Diwakar makes a few very good points here - the primacy of processes in today's business environment, well defined objectives of BPM, the various underlying technologies that come together in a BPM solution (EAI, Middleware, SOA, etc.). He also talks about how BPM is helping companies in the emerging markets where paper based processes still reign supreme - by streamlining process flow and providing central repository of images of business critical paper documents.

The author feels very strongly that BPM would be a significant technology in the coming years that will help businesses in all industries across the board. E-Governance is another key area that would gain a lot from BPM technology.

Sanjay Kalra

Next generation workflow - Vendor Voice - Network Magazine India: "activities"

The Trigger Effect (2003) Synopsis - MovieWeb

The Trigger Effect (2003) Synopsis - MovieWeb
The lights go on; the television plays; the telephone rings.

Your comforts increase as you relinquish control over your life to the technology that sustains you. Enemies are images on a small screen, blips on a radar tracker... bloodless, remote.

One day, technology crashes. Lights go off; the TV stops playing; the phone goes dead.

Cut off from that which consoled you, the enemy is now a shadow at the window... a noise in the kitchen... the guy across the street... your own fears.

Amblin Entertainment and Gramercy Pictures present the directorial debut of David Koepp, THE TRIGGER EFFECT, starring Academy Award nominee Elisabeth Shue ("Leaving Las Vegas"), Dermot Mulroney ("Copycat" and "Living in Oblivion") and Kyle MacLachlan ("Twin Peaks" and "The Flintstones"). Written and directed by Koepp (whose writing credits include "Jurassic Park," "Mission: Impossible" and the award-winning "Apartment Zero"), the psychological thriller is produced by Michael Grillo. Walter Parkes, Laurie MacDonald and Gerald R. Molen are executive producers.

Out for a quiet night at the movies, Matt (KYLE MacLACHLAN) and Annie (ELISABETH SHUE) abide a series of petty annoyances that spill like uncapped soft drinks from one theatergoer to the next. Among the annoyed is Raymond (RICHARD T. JONES).

Returning to their suburban home, Matt and Annie discover that their infant daughter has an ear infection. Matt calls the pediatrician who says he'll phone in a prescription in the morning, but during the night there is a power failure. And in the darkness, the network of support for everything on which their daily lives have come to depend begins unraveling.

Matt goes outside and finds his neighbors - including Steph (BILL SMITROVICH) - checking their circuits and speculating on what may have caused the outage. With the phones dead, the pharmacist hasn't received the prescription and won't give Matt the medicine. Spurred on by the increasing lawlessness, Matt steals the penicillin his daughter needs.

At home, the couple gets a surprise visit from Matt's old friend, Joe (DERMOT MULRONEY). Joe brings rumors about "looting and shooting" in town. They go into town to see for themselves how the system is breaking down.

With the world around them appearing more threatening, Annie invites Joe to stay with them. Joe's presence triggers tensions between the two men. The relationship between the three of them suffers further after a confrontation with a prowler turns violent. The technological island that has been their life support system no longer seems safe. They decide to leave.

Raymond, whose path has crossed Matt's several times without either knowing it, is also on his way to find sanctuary. At a roadside diner, a traveler named Gary (MICHAEL ROOKER), who is having car trouble tries to bargain with Ray for a gallon of gas. Ray turns him down.

Farther down the road, an event occurs in which the lives of Annie, Matt and Joe ricochet off those of Gary and Raymond. Fears for survival create mistrust. Lives hang in the balance as a test of wills turns into a test of faith. And nothing in their comfortable urban existence could possibly have prepared them for this.

Man's survival in face of disaster

Hurricane Katrina and the power outage in Los Angeles today reminded me of this movie I'd seen a few years back - The Trigger Efect. It's one of the noir movies that inspire a cult following amongst few despite getting mediocre ratings and box office success.

http://movieweb.com/movies/synopsis.php?id=2220&ns=1

The film focuses on a family in the middle of an unexplained power outage. The breakdown of modern society without the power that runs everything is a lesson that we all need to examine. There are a few lessons that we need to learn:

- This is an important issue - you can't explain away what happened in LA today as a mistake by a utility crew. The progressive deterioration of basic infrastructure in USA is making it look more and more like the third world - from Louisiana to LA to NY to the rotting downtown areas in major US cities.

- Our reliance on modern technology is making us less and less able to cope with disasters. In Louisiana, the best form of communication would have been CB radios and AM radio stations. But I doubt that many people their had AM or CB radios - 'cos no one uses them anymore. The modern alternatives - cellphones, internet, IM, etc. don't work very well in tough conditions - as was well demonstrated here. While CB radios are bulkier, we do have the FRS radios today that are quite ubiquitous - but we need a nationwide emergency channel, nationwide weather channel, etc. on FRS frequencies and we need to popularize these radios for emergency and relief situations.
The Trigger Effect (2003) Synopsis - MovieWeb

Stevie's Little Wonder - Apple iPod Nano

Apple and Steve Jobs has done it again - Wowed the public! iPod Nano has the sex appeal that Sony will kill for. Definitely high on my Holiday Gifts list for my daughter (maybe she'll let me borrow it occassionally:-) )
TIME.com Print Page: TIME Magazine -- Stevie's Little Wonder: "'Not very many companies are bold enough to shoot their best-selling product at the peak of its popularity,' Gartner analyst Van Baker says. 'That's what Apple just did.'"

The Mississippi Flood of 1927 and Katrina

Here's a poignant post by Amardeep Singh on the current travails of Louisiana, Mississipi and Alabama residents devastated by hurricane Katrina and a historical parallel from 1927. The 1927 flood was followed by a nationwide recession - hope that's not the case this time.

"The Flood," by Robert Frost; and the 1927 Mississippi Flood
The Flood

by Robert Lee Frost

Blood has been harder to dam back than water.
Just when we think we have it impounded safe
Behind new barrier walls (and let it chafe!),
It breaks away in some new kind of slaughter.
We choose to say it is let loose by the devil;
But power of blood itself releases blood.
It goes by might of being such a flood
Held high at so unnatural a level.
It will have outlet, brave and not so brave.
weapons of war and implements of peace
Are but the points at which it finds release.
And now it is once more the tidal wave
That when it has swept by leaves summits stained.
Oh, blood will out. It cannot be contained.


Update: This poem was published in 1928, in a collection called West-Running Brook.

I believe it is a response to the great Misssippi River flood of 1927, which killed and displaced thousands of people -- including, again, many African Americans. Herbert Hoover, one of the most incompetent Presidents in U.S. history, supervised the rescue efforts. His betrayal of African American victims of the flood led blacks to leave the Republican party, and may have changed the face of American politics.

Here is a PBS timeline detailing the events. The racial nastiness of the era makes this week's FEMA failure seem almost small.

With "blood," I think Frost is in some sense referring to the ugly human politics that came with (and followed) the disaster.
sanjay kalra

Globalization - History becomes an organic whole

"Now in earlier times the world's history had consisted, so to speak, of a series of unrelated episodes, the origins and results of each being as widely separated as their localities, but from this point onwards history becomes an organic whole: the affairs of Italy and Africa are connected with those of Asia and of Greece, and all events bear a relationship and contribute to a single end."

The above seems like a contemporary quote - maybe someone like Tom Friedman writing about Globalization. It may shock you to know, however, that this quote is from Polybius (who died in 118 B.C.) writing about the rise of Rome.

Seems like Globalization has been going on for a long time. Yet some of our people and policymakers behave as if they are insulated from the rest of the world - thus the unilateralism that we see so often today.

{for your reference, I picked up this quote from the prologue of "Among the Believers" by V.S. Naipaul}

Gas prices

gas_prices
Originally uploaded by caseyhelbling.

A picture sure is worth a thousand words! I think you'll see a lot of this in the coming days when the American dream starts coming apart under stress from a twin forces of high gas prices and slowing real estate market. It's almost turning out to be a perfect storm.

Talk about gas guzzlers and American myopia

It was not so long ago that the market was so crazy about hummers, their competition decided an even bigger, badder, luxury truck - the NaviStar CXT. At a street price of over $100,000 and a spectacular gas mileage of 6-10 miles per gallon, the company spokesperson said "We can see it as a vehicle for business people who want to make a distinct impression. For personal use, it's for people who want to make a statement.

I am wondering how this vehicle is going to do - with gas prices well over $3 per gallon. It would cost about $450 per month in gas cost alone to drive it an average of 1,000 miles per month.
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